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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.