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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."